Free CFA Institute CFA-Level-III Exam Questions

Carl Cramer is a recent hire at Derivatives Specialists Inc. (DSI), a small consulting firm that advises a varietyof institutions on the management of credit risk. Some of DSI's clients are very familiar with risk managementtechniques whereas others are not. Cramer has been assigned the task of creating a handbook on credit risk,its possible impact, and its management. His immediate supervisor, Christine McNally, will assist Cramer in thecreation of the handbook and will review it. Before she took a position at DSI, McNally advised banks and otherinstitutions on the use of value-at-risk (VAR) as well as credit-at-risk (CAR).Cramer's first task is to address the basic dimensions of credit risk. He states that the first dimension of creditrisk is the probability of an event that will cause a loss. The second dimension of credit risk is the amount lost,which is a function of the dollar amount recovered when a loss event occurs. Cramer recalls the considerabledifficulty he faced when transacting with Johnson Associates, a firm which defaulted on a contract with theGrich Company. Grich forced Johnson Associates into bankruptcy and Johnson Associates was declared indefault of all its agreements. Unfortunately, DSI then had to wait until the bankruptcy court decided on all claimsbefore it could settle the agreement with Johnson Associates.McNally mentions that Cramer should include a statement about the time dimension of credit risk. She statesthat the two primary time dimensions of credit risk are current and future. Current credit risk relates to thepossibility of default on current obligations, while future credit risk relates to potential default on futureobligations. If a borrower defaults and claims bankruptcy, a creditor can file claims representing the face valueof current obligations and the present value of future obligations. Cramer adds that combining current andpotential credit risk analysis provides the firm's total credit risk exposure and that current credit risk is usually areliable predictor of a borrower's potential credit risk.As DSI has clients with a variety of forward contracts, Cramer then addresses the credit risks associated withforward agreements. Cramer states that long forward contracts gain in value when the market price of theunderlying increases above the contract price. McNally encourages Cramer to include an example of credit riskand forward contracts in the handbook. She offers the following:A forward contract sold by Palmer Securities has six months until the delivery date and a contract price of 50.The underlying asset has no cash flows or storage costs and is currently priced at 50. In the contract, no fundswere exchanged upfront.Cramer also describes how a client firm of DSI can control the credit risks in their derivatives transactions. Hewrites that firms can make use of netting arrangements, create a special purpose vehicle, require collateralfrom counterparties, and require a mark-to-market provision. McNally adds that Cramer should include adiscussion of some newer forms of credit protection in his handbook. McNally thinks credit derivativesrepresent an opportunity for DSL She believes that one type of credit derivative that should figure prominently intheir handbook is total return swaps. She asserts that to purchase protection through a total return swap, theholder of a credit asset will agree to pass the total return on the asset to the protection seller (e.g., a swapdealer) in exchange for a single, fixed payment representing the discounted present value of expected cashflows from the asset.A DSI client, Weaver Trading, has a bond that they are concerned will increase in credit risk. Weaver would likeprotection against this event in the form of a payment if the bond's yield spread increases beyond LIBOR plus3%. Weaver Trading prefers a cash settlement.Later that week, Cramer and McNally visit a client's headquarters and discuss the potential hedge of a bondissued by Cuellar Motors. Cuellar manufactures and markets specialty luxury motorcycles. The client isconsidering hedging the bond using a credit spread forward, because he is concerned that a downturn in theeconomy could result in a default on the Cuellar bond. The client holds $2,000,000 in par of the Cuellar bondand the bond's coupons are paid annually. The bond's current spread over the U.S. Treasury rate is 2.5%. Thecharacteristics of the forward contract are shown below.Information on the Credit Spread ForwardDetermine whether the forward contracts sold by Palmer Securities have current and/or potential credit risk.

Sue Gano and Tony Cismesia are performance analysts for the Barth Group. Barth provides consulting andcompliance verification for investment firms wishing to adhere to the Global Investment Performance Standards(GIPS ®). The firm also provides global performance evaluation and attribution services for portfolio managers.Barth recommends the use of GIPS to its clients due to its prominence as the standard for investmentperformance presentation.One of the Barth Group's clients, Nigel Investment Advisors, has a composite that specializes in exploiting theresults of academic research. This Contrarian composite goes long "loser" stocks and short "winner" stocks.The "loser' stocks are those that have experienced severe price declines over the past three years, while the"winner" stocks are those that have had a tremendous surge in price over the past three years. The Contrariancomposite has a mixed record of success and is rather small. It contains only four portfolios. Gano andCismesia debate the requirements for the Contrarian composite under the Global Investment PerformanceStandards.The Global Equity Growth composite of Nigel Investment Advisors invests in growth stocks internationally, andis tilted when appropriate to small cap stocks. One of Nigel's clients in the Global Equity Growth composite isCypress University. The university has recently decided that it would like to implement ethical investing criteriain its endowment holdings. Specifically, Cypress does not want to hold the stocks from any countries that aredeemed as human rights violators. Cypress has notified Nigel of the change, but Nigel does not hold any stocksin these countries. Gano is concerned that this restriction may limit investment manager freedom going forward.Gano and Cismesia are discussing the valuation and return calculation principles for both portfolios andcomposites, which they believe have changed over time. In order to standardize the manner in whichinvestment firms calculate and present performance to clients, Gano states that GIPS require the following:Statement 1: The valuation of portfolios must be based on market values and not book values or cost. Portfoliovaluations must be quarterly for all periods prior to January 1, 2001. Monthly portfolio valuations and returns arerequired for periods between January 1, 2001 and January 1, 2010.Statement 2: Composites are groups of portfolios that represent a specific investment strategy or objective. Adefinition of them must be made available upon request. Because composites are based on portfolio valuation,the monthly requirement for return calculation also applies to composites for periods between January 1, 2001and January 1, 2010.The manager of the Global Equity Growth composite has a benchmark that is fully hedged against currencyrisk. Because the manager is confident in his forecasting of currency values, the manager does not hedge tothe extent that the benchmark does. In addition to the Global Equity Growth composite, Nigel InvestmentAdvisors has a second investment manager that specializes in global equity. The funds under her managementconstitute the Emerging Markets Equity composite. The benchmark for the Emerging Markets Equity compositeis not hedged against currency risk. The manager of the Emerging Markets Equity composite does not hedgedue to the difficulty in finding currency hedges for thinly traded emerging market currencies. The managerfocuses on security selection in these markets and does not try to time the country markets differently from thebenchmark.The manager of the Emerging Markets Equity composite would like to add frontier markets such as Bulgaria,Kenya, Oman, and Vietnam to their composite, with a 20% weight- The manager is attracted to frontier marketsbecause, compared to emerging markets, frontier markets have much higher expected returns and lowercorrelations. Frontier markets, however, also have lower liquidity and higher risk. As a result, the managerproposes that the benchmark be changed from one reflecting only emerging markets to one that reflects bothemerging and frontier markets. The date of the change and the reason for the change will be provided in thefootnotes to the performance presentation. The manager reasons that by doing so, the potential investor canaccurately assess the relative performance of the composite over time.Cismesia would like to explore the performance of the Emerging Markets Equity composite over the past twoyears. To do so, he determines the excess return each period and then compounds the excess return over thetwo years to arrive at a total two-year excess return. For the attribution analysis, he calculates the securityselection effect, the market allocation effect, and the currency allocation effect each year. He then adds all theyearly security selection effects together to arrive at the total security selection effect. He repeats this processfor the market allocation effect and the currency allocation effect.What are the GIPS requirements for the Contrarian composite of Nigel Investment Advisors?

Security analysts Andrew Tian, CFA, and Cameron Wong, CFA, are attending an investment symposium at theSingapore Investment Analyst Society. The focus of the symposium is capital market expectations and relativeasset valuations across markets. Many highly-respected practitioners and academics from across the AsiaPacific region are on hand to make presentations and participate in panel discussions.The first presenter, Lillian So, President of the Society, speaks on market expectations and tools for estimatingintrinsic valuations. She notes that analysts attempting to gauge expectations are often subject to variouspitfalls that subjectively skew their estimates. She also points out that there are potential problems relating to achoice of models, not all of which describe risk the same way. She then provides the following data to illustratehow analysts might go about estimating expectations and intrinsic values.The next speaker, Clive Smyth, is a member of the exchange rate committee at the Bank of New Zealand. Hispresentation concerns the links between spot currency rates and forecasted exchange rates. He states thatforeign exchange rates are linked by several forces including purchasing power parity (PPP) and interest rateparity (IRP). He tells his audience that the relationship between exchange rates and PPP is strongest in theshort run, while the relationship between exchange rates and IRP is strongest in the long run. Smyth goes on tosay that when a country's economy becomes more integrated with the larger world economy, this can have aprofound impact on the cost of capital and asset valuations in that country.The final speaker in the session directed his discussion toward emerging market investments. This discussion,by Hector Ruiz, head of emerging market investment for the Chilean Investment Board, was primarilyconcerned with how emerging market risk differs from that in developed markets and how to evaluate thepotential of emerging market investments. He noted that sometimes an economic crisis in one country canspread to other countries in the area, and that asset returns often exhibit a greater degree of non-normality thanin developed markets.Ruiz concluded his presentation with the data in the tables below to illustrate factors that should be consideredduring the decision-making process for portfolio managers who are evaluating investments in emergingmarkets.Determine which of the following characteristics of emerging market debt investing presents the global fixedincome portfolio manager with the best potential to generate enhanced returns.

John Green, CFA, is a sell-side technology analyst at Federal Securities, a large global investment banking andadvisory firm. In many of his recent conversations with executives at the firms he researches, Green has hearddisturbing news. Most of these firms are lowering sales estimates for the coming year. However, the stockprices have been stable despite management's widely disseminated sales warnings. Green is preparing hisquarterly industry analysis and decides to seek further input. He calls Alan Volk, CFA, a close friend who runsthe Initial Public Offering section of the investment banking department of Federal Securities.Volk tells Green he has seen no slowing of demand for technology IPOs. "We've got three new issues due outnext week, and two of them are well oversubscribed." Green knows that Volk's department handled over 200IPOs last year, so he is confident that Volk's opinion is reliable. Green prepares his industry report, which isfavorable. Among other conclusions, the report states that "the future is still bright, based on the fact that 67%of technology IPOs are oversubscribed." Privately, Green recommends to Federal portfolio managers that theybegin selling all existing technology issues, which have "stagnated," and buy the IPOs in their place.After carefully evaluating Federal's largest institutional client's portfolio, Green contacts the client andrecommends selling all of his existing technology stocks and buying two of the upcoming IPOs, similar to therecommendation given to Federal's portfolio managers. Green's research has allowed him to conclude that onlythese two IPOs would be appropriate for this particular client's portfolio. Investing in these IPOs and selling thecurrent technology holdings would, according to Green, "double the returns that your portfolio experienced lastyear."Federal Securities has recently hired Dirks Bentley, a CFA candidate who has passed Level 2 and is currentlypreparing to take the Level 3 CFA® exam, to reorganize Federal's compliance department. Bentley tells Greenthat he may be subject to CFA Institute sanctions due to inappropriate contact between analysts andinvestment bankers within Federal Securities. Bentley has recommended that Green implement a firewall torectify the situation and has outlined the key characteristics for such a system. Bentley's suggestions are asfollows:1. Any communication between the departments of Federal Securities must be channeled through thecompliance department for review and eventual delivery. The firm must create and maintain watch, restricted,and rumor lists to be used in the review of employee trading.2. All beneficial ownership, whether direct or indirect, of recommended securities must be disclosed in writing.3. The firm must increase the level of review or restriction of proprietary trading activities during periods inwhich the firm has knowledge of information that is both material and nonpublic.Bentley has identified two of Green's analysts, neither of whom have non-compete contracts, who are preparingto leave Federal Securities and go into competition. The first employee, James Ybarra, CFA, has agreed totake a position with one of Federal's direct competitors. Ybarra has contacted existing Federal clients using aclient list he created with public records. None of the contacted clients have agreed to move their accounts asYbarra has requested. The second employee, Martha Cliff, CFA, has registered the name Cliff InvestmentConsulting (CIC), which she plans to use for her independent consulting business. For the new businessventure, Cliff has developed and professionally printed marketing literature that compares the new firm'sservices to that of Federal Securities and highlights the significant cost savings that will be realized by switchingto CIC. After she leaves Federal, Cliff plans to target many of the same prospects that Federal Securities istargeting, using an address list she purchased from a third-party vendor. Bentley decides to call a meeting withGreen to discuss his findings.After discussing the departing analysts. Green asks Bentley how to best handle the disclosure of the followingitems: (1) although not currently a board member. Green has served in the past on the board of directors of acompany he researches and expects that he will do so again in the near future; and (2) Green recently inheritedput options on a company for which he has an outstanding buy recommendation. Bentley is contemplating hisresponse to Green.According to Standard 11(A) Material Nonpublic Information, when Green contacted Volk, he:

Paul Dennon is senior manager at Apple Markets Associates, an investment advisory firm. Dennon has beenexamining portfolio risk using traditional methods such as the portfolio variance and beta. He has rankedportfolios from least risky to most risky using traditional methods.Recently, Dennon has become more interested in employing value at risk (VAR) to determine the amount ofmoney clients could potentially lose under various scenarios. To examine VAR, Paul selects a fund run solelyfor Apple's largest client, the Jude Fund. The client has $100 million invested in the portfolio. Using thevariance-covariance method, the mean return on the portfolio is expected to be 10% and the standard deviationis expected to be 10%. Over the past 100 days, daily losses to the Jude Fund on its 10 worst days were (inmillions): 20, 18, 16, 15, 12, 11, 10, 9, 6, and 5. Dennon also ran a Monte Carlo simulation (over 10,000scenarios). The following table provides the results of the simulation:Figure 1: Monte Carlo Simulation DataThe top row (Percentile) of the table reports the percentage of simulations that had returns below thosereported in the second row (Return). For example, 95% of the simulations provided a return of 15% or less, and97.5% of the simulations provided a return of 20% or less.Dennon's supervisor, Peggy Lane, has become concerned that Dennon's use of VAR in his portfoliomanagement practice is inappropriate and has called for a meeting with him. Lane begins by asking Dennon tojustify his use of VAR methodology and explain why the estimated VAR varies depending on the method usedto calculate it. Dennon presents Lane with the following table detailing VAR estimates for another Apple client,the York Pension Plan.To round out the analytical process. Lane suggests that Dennon also incorporate a system for evaluatingportfolio performance. Dennon agrees to the suggestion and computes several performance ratios on the YorkPension Plan portfolio to discuss with Lane. The performance figures are included in the following table. Notethat the minimum acceptable return is the risk-free rate.Figure 3: Performance Ratios for the York Pension PlanUsing the historical data over the past 100 days, the 1-day, 5% VAR for the Jude Fund is closest to: