Become CFA Institute Certified with updated CFA-Level-III exam questions and correct answers
Paul Dennon is senior manager at Apple Markets Associates, an investment advisory firm. Dennon has beenexamining portfolio risk using traditional methods such as the portfolio variance and beta. He has rankedportfolios from least risky to most risky using traditional methods.Recently, Dennon has become more interested in employing value at risk (VAR) to determine the amount ofmoney clients could potentially lose under various scenarios. To examine VAR, Paul selects a fund run solelyfor Apple's largest client, the Jude Fund. The client has $100 million invested in the portfolio. Using thevariance-covariance method, the mean return on the portfolio is expected to be 10% and the standard deviationis expected to be 10%. Over the past 100 days, daily losses to the Jude Fund on its 10 worst days were (inmillions): 20, 18, 16, 15, 12, 11, 10, 9, 6, and 5. Dennon also ran a Monte Carlo simulation (over 10,000scenarios). The following table provides the results of the simulation:Figure 1: Monte Carlo Simulation Data
The top row (Percentile) of the table reports the percentage of simulations that had returns below thosereported in the second row (Return). For example, 95% of the simulations provided a return of 15% or less, and97.5% of the simulations provided a return of 20% or less.Dennon's supervisor, Peggy Lane, has become concerned that Dennon's use of VAR in his portfoliomanagement practice is inappropriate and has called for a meeting with him. Lane begins by asking Dennon tojustify his use of VAR methodology and explain why the estimated VAR varies depending on the method usedto calculate it. Dennon presents Lane with the following table detailing VAR estimates for another Apple client,the York Pension Plan.
To round out the analytical process. Lane suggests that Dennon also incorporate a system for evaluatingportfolio performance. Dennon agrees to the suggestion and computes several performance ratios on the YorkPension Plan portfolio to discuss with Lane. The performance figures are included in the following table. Notethat the minimum acceptable return is the risk-free rate.Figure 3: Performance Ratios for the York Pension Plan
Using the historical data over the past 100 days, the 1-day, 5% VAR for the Jude Fund is closest to:
Rowan Brothers is a full service investment firm offering portfolio management and investment banking services. For the last ten years, Aaron King, CFA, has managed individual client portfolios for Rowan Brothers, most of which are trust accounts over which King has full discretion. One of King's clients, Shelby Pavlica, is a widow in her late 50s whose husband died and left assets of over $7 million in a trust, for which she is the only beneficiary. Pavlica's three children are appalled at their mother's spending habits and have called a meeting with King to discuss their concerns. They inform King that their mother is living too lavishly to leave much for them or Pavlica's grandchildren upon her death. King acknowledges their concerns and informs them that, on top of her ever-increasing spending, Pavlica has recently been diagnosed with a chronic illness. Since the diagnosis could indicate a considerable increase in medical spending, he will need to increase the risk of the portfolio to generate sufficient return to cover the medical bills and spending and still maintain the principal. King restructures the portfolio accordingly and then meets with Pavlica a week later to discuss how he has altered the investment strategy, which was previously revised only three months earlier in their annual meeting. During the meeting with Pavlica, Kang explains his reasoning tor altering the portfolio allocation but does not mention the meeting with Pavlica's children. Pavlica agrees that it is probably the wisest decision and accepts the new portfolio allocation adding that she will need to tell her children about her illness, so they will understand why her medical spending requirements will increase in the near future. She admits to King that her children have been concerned about her spending. King assures her that the new investments will definitely allow her to maintain her lifestyle and meet her higher medical spending needs. One of the investments selected by King is a small allocation in a private placement offered to him by a brokerage firm that often makes trades for King's portfolios. The private placement is an equity investment in ShaleCo, a small oil exploration company. In order to make the investment, King sold shares of a publicly traded biotech firm, VNC Technologies. King also held shares of VNC, a fact that he has always disclosed to clients before purchasing VNC for their accounts. An hour before submitting the sell order for the VNC shares in Pavlica's trust account. King placed an order to sell a portion of his position in VNC stock. By the time Pavlica's order was sent to the trading floor, the price of VNC had risen, allowing Pavlica to sell her shares at a better price than received by King. Although King elected not to take any shares in the private placement, he purchased positions for several of his clients, for whom the investment was deemed appropriate in terms of the clients* objectives and constraints as well as the existing composition of the portfolios. In response to the investment support, ShaleCo appointed King to their board of directors. Seeing an opportunity to advance his career while also protecting the value of his clients' investments in the company, King gladly accepted the offer. King decided that since serving on the board of ShaleCo is in his clients' best interest, it is not necessary to disclose the directorship to his clients or his employer. For his portfolio management services, King charges a fixed percentage fee based on the value of assets under management. All fees charged and other terms of service are disclosed to clients as well as prospects. In the past month, however. Rowan Brothers has instituted an incentive program for its portfolio managers. Under the program, the firm will award an all-expense-paid vacation to the Cayman islands for any portfolio manager who generates two consecutive quarterly returns for his clients in excess of 10%. King updates his marketing literature to ensure that his prospective clients are fully aware of his compensation arrangements, but he does not contact current clients to make them aware of the newly created performance incentive. According to the CFA Institute Standards of Professional Conduct, which of the following statements is correct concerning King's directorship with ShaleCo?
Joan Weaver, CFA and Kim McNally, CFA are analysts for Cardinal Fixed Income Management. Cardinalprovides investment advisory services to pension funds, endowments, and other institutions in the U.S. andCanada. Cardinal recommends positions in investment-grade corporate and government bonds.Cardinal has largely advocated the use of passive approaches to bond investments, where the predominantholding consists of an indexed or enhanced indexed bond portfolio. They are exploring, however, the possibilityof using a greater degree of active management to increase excess returns. The analysts have made thefollowing statements.• Weaver: "An advantage of both enhanced indexing by matching primary risk factors and enhanced indexingby minor risk factor mismatching is that there is the potential for excess returns, but the duration of the portfoliois matched with that of the index, thereby limiting the portion of tracking error resulting from interest rate risk."• McNally: "The use of active management by larger risk factor mismatches typically involves large durationmismatches from the index, in an effort to capitalize on interest rate forecasts."As part of their increased emphasis on active bond management, Cardinal has retained the services of aneconomic consultant to provide expectations input on factors such as interest rate levels, interest rate volatility,and credit spreads. During his presentation, the economist states that he believes long-term interest ratesshould fall over the next year, but that short-term rates should gradually increase. Weaver and McNally arecurrently advising an institutional client that wishes to maintain the duration of its bond portfolio at 6.7. In light ofthe economic forecast, they are considering three portfolios that combine the following three bonds in varyingamounts.
Weaver and McNally next examine an investment in a semiannual coupon bond newly issued by the ManixCorporation, a firm with a credit rating of AA by Moody's. The specifics of the bond purchase are providedbelow given Weaver's projections. It is Cardinal's policy that bonds be evaluated for purchase on a total returnbasis.
One of Cardinal's clients, the Johnson Investment Fund (JIF), has instructed Weaver and McNally torecommend the appropriate debt investment for $125,000,000 in funds. JIF is willing to invest an additional15% of the portfolio using leverage. JIF requires that the portfolio duration not exceed 5.5. Weaverrecommends that JIF invest in bonds with a duration of 5.2. The maximum allowable leverage will be used andthe borrowed funds will have a duration of 0.8. JIF is considering investing in bonds with options and has askedMcNally to provide insight into these investments. McNally makes the following comments:"Due to the increasing sophistication of bond issuers, the amount of bonds with put options is increasing, andthese bonds sell at a discount relative to comparable bullets. Putables are quite attractive when interest ratesrise, but, we should be careful if with them, because valuation models often fail to account for the credit risk ofthe issuer."Another client, Blair Portfolio Managers, has asked Cardinal to provide advice on duration management. Oneyear ago, their portfolio had a market value of $3,010,444 and a dollar duration of $108,000; current figures areprovided below:
The expected bond equivalent yield for the Manix Bond, using total return analysis, is closest to:
William Bliss, CFA, runs a hedge fund that uses both managed futures strategies and positions in physicalcommodities. He is reviewing his operations and strategies to increase the return of the fund. Bliss has justhired Joseph Kanter, CFA, to help him manage the fund because he realizes that he needs to increase histrading activity in futures and to engage in futures strategies other than fully hedged, passively managedpositions. Bliss also hired Kanter because of Kantcr's experience with swaps, which Bliss hopes to add to hischoice of investment tools.Bliss explains to Kanter that his clients pay 2% on assets under management and a 20% incentive fee. Theincentive fee is based on profits after having subtracted the risk-free rate, which is the fund's basic hurdle rate,and there is a high water mark provision. Bliss is hoping that Kanter can help his business because his firm didnot earn an incentive fee this past year. This was the case despite the fact that, after two years of losses, thevalue of the fund increased 14% during the previous year. That increase occurred without any new capitalcontributed from clients. Bliss is optimistic about the near future because the term structure of futures prices isparticularly favorable for earning higher returns from long futures positions.Kanter says he has seen research that indicates inflation may increase in the next few years. He states thisshould increase the opportunity to earn a higher return in commodities and suggests taking a large, marginedposition in a broad commodity index. This would offer an enhanced return that would attract investors holdingonly stocks and bonds. Bliss mentions that not all commodity prices are positively correlated with inflation so itmay be better to choose particular types of commodities in which to invest. Furthermore, Bliss adds thatcommodities traditionally have not outperformed stocks and bonds either on a risk-adjusted or absolute basis.Kanter says he will research companies who do business in commodities, because buying the stock of thosecompanies to gain commodity exposure is an efficient and effective method for gaining indirect exposure tocommodities.Bliss agrees that his fund should increase its exposure to commodities and wants Kanter's help in using swapsto gain such exposure. Bliss asks Kanter to enter into a swap with a relatively short horizon to demonstrate howa commodity swap works. Bliss notes that the futures prices of oil for six months, one year, eighteen months,and two years are $55, S54, $52, and $5 1 per barrel, respectively, and the risk-free rate is less than 2%.Bliss asks how a seasonal component could be added to such a swap. Specifically, he asks if either thenotional principal or the swap price can be higher during the reset closest to the winter season and lower for thereset period closest to the summer season. This would allow the swap to more effectively hedge a commoditylike oil, which would have a higher demand in the winter than the summer. Kanter says that a swap can onlyhave seasonal swap prices, and the notional principal must stay constanl. Thus, the solution in such a casewould be to enter into two swaps, one that has an annual reset in the winter and one that has an annual reset inthe summer.Given the information, the most likely reason that Bliss's firm did not earn an incentive fee in the past year wasbecause:
Eugene Price, CFA, a portfolio manager for the American Universal Fund (AUF), has been directed to pursue acontingent immunization strategy for a portfolio with a current market value of $100 million. AUF's trustees arenot willing to accept a rate of return less than 6% over the next five years. The trustees have also stated thatthey believe an immunization rate of 8% is attainable in today's market. Price has decided to implement thisstrategy by initially purchasing $100 million in 10-year bonds with an annual coupon rate of 8.0%, paidsemiannuallyPrice forecasts that the prevailing immunization rate and market rate for the bonds will both rise from 8% to 9%in one year.While Price is conducting his immunization strategy he is approached by April Banks, a newly hired junioranalyst at AUF. Banks is wondering what steps need to be taken to immunize a portfolio with multiple liabilities.Price states that the concept of single liability immunization can fortunately be extended to address the issue ofimmunizing a portfolio with multiple liabilities. He further states that there are two methods for managingmultiple liabilities. The first method is cash flow matching which involves finding a bond with a maturity dateequal to the liability payment date, buying enough in par value of that bond so that the principal and final couponfully fund the last liability, and continuing this process until all liabilities are matched. The second method ishorizon matching which ensures that the assets and liabilities have the same present values and durations.Price warns Banks about the dangers of immunization risk. He states that it is impossible to have a portfoliowith zero immunization risk, because reinvestment risk will always be present. Price tells Banks, "Be cognizantof the dispersion of cash flows when conducting an immunization strategy. When there is a high dispersion ofcash flows about the horizon date, immunization risk is high. It is better to have cash flows concentrated aroundthe investment horizon, since immunization risk is reduced."Regarding Price's statements on the two methods for managing multiple liabilities, determine whether hisdescriptions of cash flow matching and horizon matching are correct.
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