Free CFA Institute CFA-Level-III Exam Questions

Security analysts Andrew Tian, CFA, and Cameron Wong, CFA, are attending an investment symposium at theSingapore Investment Analyst Society. The focus of the symposium is capital market expectations and relativeasset valuations across markets. Many highly-respected practitioners and academics from across the AsiaPacific region are on hand to make presentations and participate in panel discussions.The first presenter, Lillian So, President of the Society, speaks on market expectations and tools for estimatingintrinsic valuations. She notes that analysts attempting to gauge expectations are often subject to variouspitfalls that subjectively skew their estimates. She also points out that there are potential problems relating to achoice of models, not all of which describe risk the same way. She then provides the following data to illustratehow analysts might go about estimating expectations and intrinsic values.The next speaker, Clive Smyth, is a member of the exchange rate committee at the Bank of New Zealand. Hispresentation concerns the links between spot currency rates and forecasted exchange rates. He states thatforeign exchange rates are linked by several forces including purchasing power parity (PPP) and interest rateparity (IRP). He tells his audience that the relationship between exchange rates and PPP is strongest in theshort run, while the relationship between exchange rates and IRP is strongest in the long run. Smyth goes on tosay that when a country's economy becomes more integrated with the larger world economy, this can have aprofound impact on the cost of capital and asset valuations in that country.The final speaker in the session directed his discussion toward emerging market investments. This discussion,by Hector Ruiz, head of emerging market investment for the Chilean Investment Board, was primarilyconcerned with how emerging market risk differs from that in developed markets and how to evaluate thepotential of emerging market investments. He noted that sometimes an economic crisis in one country canspread to other countries in the area, and that asset returns often exhibit a greater degree of non-normality thanin developed markets.Ruiz concluded his presentation with the data in the tables below to illustrate factors that should be consideredduring the decision-making process for portfolio managers who are evaluating investments in emergingmarkets.Determine which of the following characteristics of emerging market debt investing presents the global fixedincome portfolio manager with the best potential to generate enhanced returns.

Walter Skinner, CFA, manages a bond portfolio for Director Securities. The bond portfolio is part of a pensionplan trust set up to benefit retirees of Thomas Steel Inc. As part of the investment policy governing the plan andthe bond portfolio, no foreign securities are to be held in the portfolio at any time and no bonds with a creditrating below investment grade are allowable for the bond portfolio. In addition, the bond portfolio must remainunleveraged. The bond portfolio is currently valued at $800 million and has a duration of 6.50. Skinner believesthat interest rates are going to increase, so he wants to lower his portfolio's duration to 4.50. He has decided toachieve the reduction in duration by using swap contracts. He has two possible swaps to choose from:1. Swap A: 4-year swap with quarterly payments.2. Swap B: 5-year swap with semiannual payments.Skinner plans to be the fixed-rate payer in the swap, receiving a floating-rate payment in exchange. Foranalysis, Skinner always assumes the duration of a fixed rate bond is 75% of its term to maturity.Several years ago, Skinner decided to circumvent the policy restrictions on foreign securities by purchasing adual currency bond issued by an American holding company with significant operations in Japan. The bondmakes semiannual fixed interest payments in Japanese yen but will make the final principal payment in U.S.dollars five years from now. Skinner originally purchased the bond to take advantage of the strengtheningrelative position of the yen. The result was an above average return for the bond portfolio for several years.Now, however, he is concerned that the yen is going to begin a weakening trend, as he expects inflation in theJapanese economy to accelerate over the next few years. Knowing Skinner's situation, one of his colleagues,Bill Michaels, suggests the following strategy:"You need to offset your exposure to the Japanese yen by establishing a short position in a synthetic dualcurrency bond that matches the terms of the dual currency bond you purchased for the Thomas Steel bondportfolio. As part of the strategy, you will have to enter into a currency swap as the fixed-rate yen payer. Theswap will neutralize the dual-currency bond position but will unfortunately increase the credit risk exposure ofthe portfolio."Skinner has also spoken to Orval Mann, the senior economist with Director Securities, about his expectationsfor the bond portfolio. Mann has also provided some advice to Skinner in the following comment:"1 know you expect a general increase in interest rates, but I disagree with your assessment of the interest rateshift. I believe interest rates are going to decrease. Therefore, you will want to synthetically remove the callfeatures of any callable bonds in your portfolio by purchasing a payer interest rate swaption."After his lung conversation with Director Securities' senior economist, Orval Mann, Skinner has completelychanged his outlook on interest rates and has decided to extend the duration of his portfolio. The mostappropriate strategy to accomplish this objective using swaps would be to enter into a swap to pay:

Jerry Edwards is an analyst with DeLeon Analytics. He is currently advising the CFO of Anderson Corp., amultinational manufacturing corporation based in Newark, New Jersey, USA. Jackie Palmer is Edwards'sassistant. Palmer is well versed in risk management, having worked at a large multinational bank for the lastten years prior to coming to Anderson.Anderson has received a $2 million note with a duration of 4.0 from Weaver Tools for a shipment delivered lastweek. Weaver markets tools and machinery from manufacturers of Anderson's size. Edwards states that inorder to effectively hedge the price risk of this instrument, Anderson should sell a series of interest rate calls.Palmer states that an alternative hedge for the note would be to enter an interest rate swap as the fixed-ratepayer.As well as selling products from a Swiss plant in Europe, Anderson sells products in Switzerland itself. As aresult, Anderson has quarterly cash flows of 12,000,000 Swiss franc (CHF). In order to convert these cashflows into dollars, Edwards suggests that Anderson enter into a currency swap without an exchange of notionalprincipal. Palmer contacts a currency swap dealer with whom they have dealt in the past and finds the followingexchange rate and annual swap interest rates:Exchange Rate (CHF per dollar) 1.24Swap interest rate in U.S. dollars 2.80%Swap interest rate in Swiss franc 6.60%Discussing foreign exchange rate risk in general, Edwards states that it is transaction exposure that is mostoften hedged, because the amount to be hedged is contractual and certain. Economic exposure, he states, isless certain and thus harder to hedge.To finance their U.S. operations, Anderson issued a S10 million fixed-rate bond in the United States five yearsago. The bond had an original maturity often years and now has a modified duration of 4.0. Edwards states thatAnderson should enter a 5-year semiannual pay floating swap with a notional principal of about $11.4 million totake advantage of falling interest rates. The duration of the fixed-rate side of the swap is equal to 75% of itsmaturity or 3.75 (= 0.75 x 5). The duration of the floating side of the swap is 0.25. Palmer states that Anderson'sposition in the swap will have a negative duration.For another client of DeLeon, Edwards has assigned Palmer the task of estimating the interest rate sensitivityof the client's portfolios. The client's portfolio consists of positions in both U.S. and British bonds. The relevantinformation for estimating (he duration contribution of the British bond and the portfolio's total duration isprovided below.U.S. dollar bond $275,000British bond $155,000British yield beta 1.40Duration of U.S. bond 4.0Duration of British bond 8.5When discussing portfolio management with clients, Edwards recommends the use of emerging market bondsto add value to a core-plus strategy. He explains the characteristics of emerging market debt to Palmer bystating:1. "The performance of emerging market debt has been quite resilient over time. After crises in the debtmarkets, emerging market bonds quickly recover after a crisis, so long-term returns can be poor."2. "Emerging market debt is quite volatile due in part to the nature of political risk in these markets. It istherefore important that the analyst monitor the risk of these markets. I prefer to measure the risk of emergingmarket bonds with the standard deviation because it provides the best representation of risk in these markets."Regarding his two statements about the characteristics of emerging market debt, is Edwards correct?

Dakota Watson and Anthony Smith are bond portfolio managers for Northern Capital Investment Advisors,which is based in the U.S. Northern Capital has $2,000 million under management, with S950 million of that inthe bond market. Northern Capital's clients are primarily institutional investors such as insurance companies,foundations, and endowments. Because most clients insist on a margin over the relevant bond benchmark,Watson and Smith actively manage their bond portfolios, while at the same time trying to minimize trackingerror.One of the funds that Northern Capital offers invests in emerging market bonds. An excerpt from its prospectusreveals the following fund objectives and strategies:“The fund generates a return by constructing a portfolio using all major fixed-income sectors within the Asianregion (except Japan) with a bias towards non-government bonds. The fund makes opportunistic investmentsin both investment grade and high yield bonds. Northern Capital analysts seek those bond issues that areexpected to outperform U.S. bonds with similar credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk-Value is added byfinding those bonds that have been overlooked by other developed world bond funds. The fund favors nondollar, local currency denominated securities to avoid the default risk associated with a lack of hard currency onthe part of issuer."Although Northern Capital does examine the availability of excess returns in foreign markets by investingoutside the index in these markets, most of its strategies focus on U.S. bonds and spread analysis of them.Discussing the analysis of spreads in the U.S. bond market, Watson comments on the usefulness of the optionadjusted spread and the swap spread and makes the following statements:Statement 1: Due to changes in the structure of the primary bond market in the U.S., the option adjustedspread is increasingly valuable for analyzing the attractiveness of bond investments.Statement 2: The advantage of the swap spread framework is that investors can compare the relativeattractiveness of fixed-rate and floating-rate bond markets.Watson's view of the U.S. economy is decidedly bearish. She is concerned that the recent withdrawal of liquidityfrom the U.S. financial system will result in a U.S. recession, possibly even a depression. She forecasts thatinterest rates in the U.S. will continue to fall as the demand for loanable funds declines with the lack of businessinvestment. Meanwhile, she believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep short-term rates low inorder to stimulate the economy. Although she sees the level of yields declining, she believes that the spread onrisky securities will increase due to the decline in business prospects. She therefore has reallocated her bondportfolio away from high-yield bonds and towards investment grade bonds.Smith is less decided about the economy. However, his trading strategy has been quite successful in the past.As an example of his strategy, he recently sold a 20-year AA-rated $50,000 Mahan Corporation bond with a7.75% coupon that he had purchased at par. With the proceeds, he then bought a newly issued A-rated QuincyCorporation bond that offered an 8.25% coupon. By swapping the first bond for the second bond, he enhancedhis annual income, which he considers quite favorable given the declining yields in the market.Watson has become quite interested in the mortgage market. With the anticipated decline in interest rates, sheexpects that the yields on mortgages will decline. As a result, she has reallocated the portion of NorthernCapital's bond portfolio dedicated to mortgages. She has shifted the holdings from 8.50% coupon mortgages to7.75% coupon mortgages, reasoning that if interest rates do drop, the lower coupon mortgages will rise in pricemore than the higher coupon mortgages. She identifies this trade as a structure trade.Smith is examining the liquidity of three bonds. Their characteristics are listed in the table below:Which of the following best describes the relative value analysis used in the Northern Capita! Emerging marketbond fund? It is a:

Jack Higgins, CFA, and Tim Tyler, CFA, are analysts for Integrated Analytics (LA), a U.S.-based investmentanalysis firm. JA provides bond analysis for both individual and institutional portfolio managers throughout theworld. The firm specializes in the valuation of international bonds, with consideration of currency risk. IAtypically uses forward contracts to hedge currency risk.Higgins and Tyler are considering the purchase of a bond issued by a Norwegian petroleum products firm,Bergen Petroleum. They have concerns, however, regarding the strength of the Norwegian krone currency(NKr) in the near term, and they want to investigate the potential return from hedged strategies. Higginssuggests that they consider forward contracts with the same maturity as the investment holding period, which isestimated at one year. He states that if IA expects the Norwegian NKr to depreciate and that the Swedish krona(Sk) to appreciate, then IA should enter into a hedge where they sell Norwegian NKr and buy Swedish Sk via aone-year forward contract. The Swedish Sk could then be converted to dollars at the spot rate in one year.Tyler states that if an investor cannot obtain a forward contract denominated in Norwegian NKr and if theNorwegian NKr and euro are positively correlated, then a forward contract should be entered into where euroswill be exchanged for dollars in one year. Tyler then provides Higgins the following data on risk-free rates andspot rates in Norway and the U.S., as well as the expected return on the Bergen Petroleum bond.Return on Bergen Petroleum bond in Norwegian NKr 7.00%Risk-free rate in Norway 4.80%Expected change in the NKr relative to the U.S. dollar -0.40%Risk-free rate in United States 2.50%Higgins and Tyler discuss the relationship between spot rates and forward rates and comment as follows.• Higgins: "The relationship between spot rates and forward rates is referred to as interest rate parity, wherehigher forward rates imply that a country's spot rate will increase in the future."• Tyler: "Interest rate parity depends on covered interest arbitrage which works as follows. Suppose the 1-yearU.K. interest rate is 5.5%, the 1-year Japanese interest rate is 2.3%, the Japanese yen is at a one-year forwardpremium of 4.1%, and transactions costs are minimal. In this case, the international trader should borrow yen.Invest in pound denominated bonds, and use a yen-pound forward contract to pay back the yen loan."The following day, Higgins and Tyler discuss various emerging market bond strategies and make the followingstatements.• Higgins: "Over time, the quality in emerging market sovereign bonds has declined, due in part to contagionand the competitive devaluations that often accompany crises in emerging markets. When one countrydevalues their currency, others often quickly follow and as a result the countries default on their external debt,which is usually denominated in a hard currency."• Tyler: "Investing outside the index can provide excess returns. Because the most common emerging marketbond index is concentrated in Latin America, the portfolio manager can earn an alpha by investing in emergingcountry bonds outside of this region."Turning their attention to specific issues of bonds, Higgins and Tyler examine the characteristics of two bonds:a six-year maturity bond issued by the Midlothian Corporation and a twelve-year maturity bond issued by theHorgen Corporation. The Midlothian bond is a U.S. issue and the Horgen bond was issued by a firm based inSwitzerland. The characteristics of each bond are shown in the table below. Higgins and Tyler discuss therelative attractiveness of each bond and, using a total return approach, which bond should be invested in,assuming a 1-year time horizon.Which of the following statements provides the best description of the advantage of using breakeven spread analysis? Breakeven spread analysis: