Become CFA Institute Certified with updated CFA-Level-III exam questions and correct answers
Matrix Corporation is a multidivisional company with operations in energy, telecommunications, and shipping.Matrix sponsors a traditional defined benefit pension plan. Plan assets are valued at $5.5 billion, while recentdeclines in interest rates have caused plan liabilities to balloon to $8.3 billion. Average employee age at Matrixis 57.5, which is considerably higher than the industry average, and the ratio of active to retired lives is 1.1. JoeElliot, Matrix's CFO, has made the following statement about the current state of the pension plan."Recent declines in interest rates have caused our pension liabilities to grow faster than ever experienced in ourlong history, but I am sure these low rates are temporary. I have looked at the charts and estimated theprobability of higher interest rates at more than 90%. Given the expected improvement in interest rate levels,plan liabilities will again come back into line with our historical position. Our investment policy will therefore beto invest plan assets in aggressive equity securities. This investment exposure will bring our plan to an overfunded status, which will allow us to use pension income to bolster our profitability."
Paul Dennon is senior manager at Apple Markets Associates, an investment advisory firm. Dennon has beenexamining portfolio risk using traditional methods such as the portfolio variance and beta. He has rankedportfolios from least risky to most risky using traditional methods.Recently, Dennon has become more interested in employing value at risk (VAR) to determine the amount ofmoney clients could potentially lose under various scenarios. To examine VAR, Paul selects a fund run solelyfor Apple's largest client, the Jude Fund. The client has $100 million invested in the portfolio. Using thevariance-covariance method, the mean return on the portfolio is expected to be 10% and the standard deviationis expected to be 10%. Over the past 100 days, daily losses to the Jude Fund on its 10 worst days were (inmillions): 20, 18, 16, 15, 12, 11, 10, 9, 6, and 5. Dennon also ran a Monte Carlo simulation (over 10,000scenarios). The following table provides the results of the simulation:Figure 1: Monte Carlo Simulation Data
The top row (Percentile) of the table reports the percentage of simulations that had returns below thosereported in the second row (Return). For example, 95% of the simulations provided a return of 15% or less, and97.5% of the simulations provided a return of 20% or less.Dennon's supervisor, Peggy Lane, has become concerned that Dennon's use of VAR in his portfoliomanagement practice is inappropriate and has called for a meeting with him. Lane begins by asking Dennon tojustify his use of VAR methodology and explain why the estimated VAR varies depending on the method usedto calculate it. Dennon presents Lane with the following table detailing VAR estimates for another Apple client,the York Pension Plan.
To round out the analytical process. Lane suggests that Dennon also incorporate a system for evaluatingportfolio performance. Dennon agrees to the suggestion and computes several performance ratios on the YorkPension Plan portfolio to discuss with Lane. The performance figures are included in the following table. Notethat the minimum acceptable return is the risk-free rate.Figure 3: Performance Ratios for the York Pension Plan
Using the historical data over the past 100 days, the 1-day, 5% VAR for the Jude Fund is closest to:
Theresa Bair, CFA, a portfolio manager for Brinton Investment Company (BIC), has recently been promoted to lead portfolio manager for her firm's new small capitalization closed-end equity fund, the Quaker Fund. BIC is an asset management firm headquartered in Holland with regional offices in several other European countries. After accepting the position, Bair received a letter from the three principals of BIC. The letter congratulated Bair on her accomplishment and new position with the firm and also provided some guidance as to her new role and the firm's expectations. Among other things, the letter stated the following: "Because our firm is based in Holland and you will have clients located in many European countries, it is essential that you determine what laws and regulations are applicable to the management of this new fund. It is your responsibility to obtain this knowledge and comply with appropriate regulations. This is the first time we have offered a fund devoted solely to small capitalization securities, so we will observe your progress carefully. You will likely need to arrange for our sister companies to quietly buy and sell Quaker Fund shares over the first month of operations. This will provide sufficient price support to allow the fund to trade closer to its net asset value than other small-cap closed-end funds. Because these funds generally trade at a discount to net asset value, if our fund trades close to its net asset value, the market may perceive it as more desirable than similar funds managed by our competitors." Bair heeded the advice from her firm's principals and collected information on the laws and regulations of three countries: Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. So far, all of the investors expressing interest in the Quaker Fund are from these areas. Based on her research, Bair decides the following policies are appropriate for the fund: Note: Laws mentioned below are assumed for illustrative purposes. • For clients located in Norway the fund will institute transaction crossing, since, unlike in Holland, the practice is not prohibited by securities laws or regulations. The process will involve internally matching buy and sell orders from Norwegian clients whenever possible. This will reduce brokerage fees and improve the fund's overall performance. • For clients located in Denmark, account statements that include the value of the clients' holdings, number of trades, and average daily trading volume will be generated on a monthly basis as required by Denmark's securities regulators, even though the laws in Holland only require such reports to be generated on a quarterly basis. • For clients located in Sweden, the fund will not disclose differing levels of service that are available for investors based upon the size of their investment. This policy is consistent with the laws and regulations in Holland. Sweden's securities regulations do not cover this type of situation.Three months after the inception of the fund, its market value has grown from $200 million to $300 million and Bair's performance has earned her a quarter-end bonus. Since it is now the end of the quarter, Bair is participating in conference calls with companies in her fund. Bair calls into the conference number for Swift Petroleum. The meeting doesn't start for another five minutes, however, and as Bair waits, she hears the CEO and CFO of Swift discussing the huge earnings restatement that will be necessary for the financial statement from the previous quarter. The restatement will not be announced until the year's end, six months from now. Bair does not remind the officers that she can hear their conversation. Once the call has ended, Bair rushes to BIC's compliance officer to inform him of what she has learned during the conference call. Bair ignores the fact that two members of the firm's investment banking division are in the office while she is telling the compliance officer what happened on the conference call. The investment bankers then proceed to sell their personal holdings of Swift Petroleum stock. After her meeting, Bair sells the Quaker Fund's holdings of Swift Petroleum stock. By selling the Quaker Fund's shares of Swift Petroleum, did Bair violate any CFA Institute Standards of Professional Conduct?
Mark Stober, William Robertson, and James McGuire are consultants for a regional pension consultancy. One of their clients, Richard Smitherspoon, chief investment officer of Quality Car Part Manufacturing, recently attended a conference on risk management topics for pension plans. Smitherspoon is a conservative manager who prefers to follow a long-term investment strategy with little portfolio turnover. Smitherspoon has substantial experience in managing a defined benefit plan but has little experience with risk management issues. Smitherspoon decides to discuss how Quality can begin implementing risk management techniques with Stober, Robertson, and McGuire. Quality's risk exposure is evaluated on a quarterly basis. Before implementing risk management techniques, Smitherspoon expresses confusion regarding some measures of risk management. "I know beta and standard deviation, but what is all this stuff about convexity, delta, gamma, and vega?" Stober informs Smitherspoon that delta is the first derivative of the call-stock price curve, and Robertson adds that gamma is the relationship between how bond prices change with changing time to maturity. Smitherspoon is still curious about risk management techniques, and in particular the concept of VAR. He asks, "What does a daily 5% VAR of $5 million mean? I just get so confused with whether VAR is a measure of maximum or minimum loss. Just last month, the consultant from MinRisk, a competing consulting firm, told me it was ‘a measure of maximum loss, which in your case means we are 95% confident that the maximum 1-day loss is $5.0 million." McGuire states that his definition of VAR is that "VAR is a measure that combines probabilities over a certain time horizon with dollar amounts, which in your case means that one expects to lose a minimum $5 million five trading days out of every 100." Smitherspoon expresses bewilderment at the different methods for determining VAR. "Can't you risk management types formulate a method that works like calculating a beta? It would be so easy if there were a method that allowed one to just use mean and standard deviation. I need a VAR that I can get my arms around." The next week, Stober visits the headquarters of TopTech, a communications firm. Their CFO is Ralph Long, who prefers to manage the firm's pension himself because he believes he can time the market and spot upcoming trends before analysts can. Long also believes that risk measurement for TopTech can be evaluated annually because of his close attention to the portfolio. Stober calculates TopTech's 95% surplus at risk to be S500 million for an annual horizon. The expected return on TopTech's asset base (currently at S2 billion) is 5%. The plan has a surplus of $100 million. Stober uses a 5% probability level to calculate the minimum amount by which the plan will be underfunded next year. Of the following VAR calculation methods, the measure that would most likely suit Smitherspoon is the:
Andre Hickock, CFA, is a newly hired fixed income portfolio manager for Deadwood Investments, LLC. Hickockis reviewing the portfolios of several pension clients that have been assigned to him to manage. The firstportfolio, Montana Hardware, Inc., has the characteristics shown in Figure 1.
Hickock is attempting to assess the risk of the Montana Hardware portfolio. The benchmark bond index thatDeadwood uses for pension accounts similar to Montana Hardware has an effective duration of 5.25. Hissupervisor, Carla Mity, has discussed bond risk measurement with Hickock. Mity is most familiar with equity riskmeasures, and is not convinced of the validity of duration as a portfolio risk measure. Mity told Hickock, "I havealways believed that standard deviation is the best measure of bond portfolio risk. You want to know thevolatility, and standard deviation is the most direct measure of volatility."Hickock is also reviewing the bond portfolio of Buffalo Sports, Inc., which is comprised of the following assetsshown in Figure 2.
The trustees of the Buffalo Sports pension plan have requested that Deadwood explore alternatives to reducethe risk of the MBS sector of their bond portfolio. Hickock responded to their request as follows:"I believe that the current option-adjusted spread (OAS) on the MBS sector is quite high. In order to reduce yourrisk, I would suggest that we hedge the interest rate risk using a combination of 2-year and 10-year Treasurysecurity futures. I would further suggest that we do not take any steps to hedge spread risk at this time."In assessing the risk of a portfolio containing both bullet maturity corporate bonds and MBS, Hickock shouldalways consider that:
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